Two weeks before the start of the World Climate Conference in Dubai (COP28), a UN report on the status of national climate efforts is sobering: The current national climate plans of nearly 200 countries would lead to a global emissions reduction of only two percent by 2030. The official target is a 43 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 2019.
“Today’s report shows that governments combined are only taking baby steps to avert the climate crisis. And it shows why governments must make bold strides forward at COP28 in Dubai to get on track,” said Simon Stiell, the head of the UN Climate Secretariat, in a video message. “There is still reason for optimism, but only if governments come to Dubai to focus on solutions,” he added.
Guterres: Climate Plans Are Blatantly Disproportionate to Science
“The world is failing to get a grip on the climate crisis,” also criticized UN Secretary-General António Guterres. “Last year, global commitment stagnated, and national climate plans are in glaring disproportion to science,” he added.
For the analysis, the United Nations Climate Secretariat evaluated all climate goals submitted by September 25.
- Even if all goals were implemented, global emissions in 2030 would be only two percent below the 2019 level. This means that the peak of worldwide emissions would still occur in this decade, far too late for the climate goals set in Paris. To halt global warming as intended, reducing emissions by 43 percent compared to 2019 is necessary by 2030, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
- In comparison to 2010, the projected greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 would still be 8.8 percent higher. This forecast has only marginally improved since last year.
The fact that states often do not implement their climate goals as intended is not considered in this analysis. The international community agreed on the 1.5-degree target to avert the most catastrophic consequences of climate change.
An Oil Manager of All People Leads the Climate Conference
At COP26 in Glasgow, the signatories of the Paris Agreement agreed to annually review the national climate protection goals, known as NDCs, instead of the previous five-year interval. However, to date, only a minority of the contracting parties have adopted more ambitious climate targets.
Time is pressing. The International Energy Agency (IEA) had recently expressed optimism that the 1.5-degree target set in 2015 was still achievable. According to the IEA, in order for this to happen, all nations must significantly accelerate their efforts to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions.
At the upcoming World Climate Conference in Dubai, starting on November 30, the future use of fossil fuels will play a significant role. The president of this year’s COP, Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, is controversial, serving simultaneously as the Minister of Industry and the head of the United Arab Emirates’ state oil company.